A Decade of EVs Done; More Coming
Shall we consider 2010-2019 the prelude of the true electric vehicle era? Electric cars reached mass production (generally considered 100,000 units per year) with the Tesla Model 3. The number of plug-in models offered proliferated, passing three dozen, and promised to increase even more in the coming decade. If you read many of our stories highlighting EV advances during the decade and plans for the next decade, you would assume electrification is well on its way to success.
Reality is a little more complex. Battery prices have dropped significantly, but those batteries remain the single biggest part of the price of a new EV. Range has expanded and 200+ miles is the ticket of entry for a full EV, but even with the newer fast-chargers, the wait to recharge is still several times longer than the refueling time for a liquid-fueled vehicle.
Despite the proliferation of plug-in models, two-thirds of which are plug-in hybrids that have a combustion engine as a back up, electric vehicle sales at the cusp of 2020 can be described in three words—Tesla Model 3. The numbers for the final quarter of 2019 are not yet in, but it looks like half of plug-in sales for the year will be that one best-selling model.
More mainstream models from Volkswagen and others during the next few years should equalize things, but the story has to be that electric cars, while competitive in most ways with their internal combustion engine brethren, are currently failing in the most important place—the market. Until more models are something other than an expensive blip on the sales chart for major brands, the electric vehicle era may be delayed further.
The Way Forward
In addition to the Model 3 being the story in electric vehicles for 2019, the broader Tesla story is the biggest news of the decade for Clean Fleet Report. Starting the decade with its Lotus-based Roadster, Tesla burst on the scene with the Model S in 2013. It wasn’t a launch without issues, something Tesla’s replicated with each succeeding model, but the Model S still stands six years later as a watershed moment in modern EV history. It demonstrated the ability of a start-up automaker to build a low-volume EV that successfully sold at a premium price in a reasonable volume. To this day it stands alone without a serious challenger from more established auto companies.
Tesla also accomplished something other successful automakers have done—it’s expanded its lineup, increasing volume and managing to eke out several cash-positive quarters while maintaining a stock price that has far outpaced other car companies. The company continues to expand with new production facilities in the largest EV market in the world—China—and new models promised in 2020 and beyond.
What began in 2019 and promises to accelerate in 2020 is company for Tesla’s current and future vehicles. This year the Audi E-Tron and Jaguar I-Pace electric SUVs joined the fray, but failed to dethrone Tesla’s Model X. The Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan Leaf EVs keep bumping up their capabilities and sell well, just nowhere as well as the hot Model 3, even though they’re priced more affordably. Hyundai’s Kona EV is just on the market and only available in limited numbers, so it remains to be seen what kind of impact it might have.
The question for 2020 is a two-parter:
- Will Tesla continue its hit parade?
- Will anyone else come up with a true market success to challenge the Palo Alto start-up?
The indications are good that one or both of these could happen. The Tesla Model Y has a strong backlog of orders and builds on what the company learned in its hit-and-miss launch of the Model 3 as well as the company’s well-polished reputation. Ford claims that the Mustang Mach-E electric crossover has had similar strong reservation action. Likewise, the Fisker Ocean has stirred up interest in the luxury end of the SUV market. Meanwhile, much of the industry focus is on the powerhouse Volkswagen that will bring the ID. Crozz crossover concept to showrooms as the ID. 4, part of its new family of affordable all-electric models. Add another dozen-to-20 models in the pipeline that may hit next year and it promises to be a fun one. Expect more electric news during CES 2020 in the first week of January.
We don’t have a crystal ball, but we’ll bring you all of the action as it happens. Happy New Year!
Related Stories You Might Enjoy—Looking Back & Looking Forward
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Road Test: 2019 Jaguar I-Pace
News: 2020 Bolt Gets Added Range
Road Test: 2019 Nissan Leaf Plus
News: Tesla Model Y Unveiled
News: Ford Mustang Mach-E Reveal
News: Volkswagen Introduces Third EV
News: VW EV Onslaught To Begin
