The people of Japan are courageously moving forward after the devastation of a 9.0 earthquake, a tsunami that ripped apart buildings and roads, and a nuclear crisis that now threatens their food and water. Just when gasoline prices are rising and Japanese hybrid cars are again hot sellers, the crisis is making hybrids and new electric cars tough to get. Let’s look at the impact on three big sellers of hybrids and electrics.
General Motors with its Chevrolet Volt currently has the lead over Nissan, Ford, and others in delivering electric cars. The Volt is the first of many models in GM’s future. To advance its lithium batteries, GM Ventures invested $7 million in Envia Systems to provide GM’s battery engineering team with access to advanced lithium-ion cathode technology that delivers higher cell energy density and lower cost.
People dance in the streets of Cairo. A dictator has fallen. For a few months, Constitutional rights are suspended, but a new election is promised. In recent weeks, a world dependent on oil has watched to see if a cascade of Mideast unrest would stop the flow of petroleum necessary for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Fortunately, as oil prices rise, lithium battery prices fall. Ford forecasts that by 2020, ten to 25 percent of its car sales will include lithium batteries and electric motors.
GM Ventures has invested in Bright Automotive and two next generation biofuel corporations – Mascoma and Coskata. In one decade, transportation will be very different from today. With GM Ventures, General Motors is positioned to invest, integrate, and deliver to global customers better cars and services that include innovations in cleantech, infotainment, materials, autonomous driving, and new business models.
Elon Musk discussed the new Model S Sedan and hinted about the Tesla Model X SUV when he keynoted the Clean-tech Investor Summit. He then gave me an interesting answer about Tesla’s future. Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO and Founder, showed us a video of the Model S test drive. A new generation of lithium batteries is at the heart of the vehicles range of 160 miles with optional packs that provide 230 and 300 miles of range per electric charge.
I enjoyed driving the new Ford Focus Electric. It felt just like driving a regular gasoline Focus 4-door sedan, except it was more quiet and accelerated faster due to the torque of the electric motor. The Ford Focus EV has a 23 kWh LG Chem Compact Power lithium-ion tri-metal battery with over 17 kWh available in the charge-discharge cycle. Ford is now taking orders starting at $39,200. Comparison and review with Nissan LEAF.
Demand for lithium is forecasted to double in this decade thanks to a wide range of applications for this metal that is half the weight of water: materials, glass, pharmaceuticals, mobile electronics, power tools, hybrid cars, and electric cars. Lithium ETF is dominated with large mining firms such as Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, FMC Corporation, and Rockwood Holdings. The fund’s largest lithium battery company holdings include Saft, Ener1, ABT, GS Yuasa, and A123.
AT&T, Xcel Energy, Johnson Controls, So Cal Edison, and New York Power Authority have ordered Ford Transit Connect Electric. These pure battery-electric vans have an electric charge range of 80 miles and are a great fit for many fleet, small business, and delivery applications. In the United States, fleets control some 14 million vehicles. Some fleets placed initial orders for 10 or 20 Transit Connect Electrics; bigger orders could follow in 2011. JCI has ordered 20 Transit Connect Electrics to be part of its global fleet of 19,000 vehicles.
March 2009 I asked myself: Why Toyota and Honda dislike lithium? My short answer to that question was: Because it was in their interest. Both created the conditions for a very profitable niche market, the hybrid electric vehicle market. So they had much to gain from delaying the arrival of the real electric car revolution since this would help them make more profits out of a rather obsolete but still commercially viable battery technology until the new emerging battery technology is finally introduced into the market.
Nissan appears to be debating between offering a 5 year / 60,000 mile warranty for the Nissan LEAF, or an 8 year /100,000 mile warranty that matches GM’s offer for the Chevy Volt. Because lithium batteries are expensive, warranty decisions can make the difference between an automaker making and losing money on early electric car sales. The stakes are higher for Nissan than for GM or Toyota. For the Nissan LEAF to deliver up to 100 mile range per charge, a 24 kWh of lithium battery pack is included, and up to 80 percent of the battery must be used in the charge-discharge range.