Opinion: Tesla Cybertruck Revisited

Two Weeks Later—What Happened?

Once again the automotive world has been divided into two eras—the time before Tesla introduced the Cybertruck—and the time since. Let’s sort through what we’ve learned in the week and a half since Elon Musk unveiled his cyberpunk anti-truck and broke its unbreakable glass. I would say it comes down to three questions.

Is this the real truck?

This may be the toughest question. Musk has been quoted as saying he did no customer research to develop his design. Although it’s been lauded by some knowledgeable folks as being a brilliant way to reduce production costs because of the limited amount of stamping needed, it remains to be seen if this will be the production design because the concept’s extreme style may or may not meet all of the myriad of different regulations a production vehicle must. In the same way concept cars shown at auto shows often morph when they go into production, adding things like mirrors, crash protection, etc., the details of the Cybertruck could alter by the time it nears market introduction.

**Tesla afficianados are ready to get inside**

Assuming Tesla is serious about building the Cybertruck, the company will need to identify a plant to produce it. For that, it needs to get in line behind the Model Y, Roadster and Semi—and maybe a new plant in Germany. Capital expenditures will be needed to make it a reality. The $20 million or so raised from reservations is a drop in the bucket compared to what Tesla will need to spend, but those reservations are a vote of confidence that should help push the Cybertruck toward reality in late 2021.

Will it sell?

We just mentioned the $20 million of reservations. That’s $100 collected from more than 200,000 eager Cybertruck admirers. Those numbers cut both ways. More than 200,000 reservations is a substantial and significant number, more than enough to rationalize production. Except that those $100 “reservations” are all refundable, may have been made on a whim, and represent a commitment that is substantially below what is usually asked to get a real sense of the market demand.

**The electric Rivian will be kicking up dust before the Cybertruck arrives**

Bottom line? Tesla will undoubtedly find a decent market for this wild truck, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 200,000 reservations represent two or three times the actual demand. A side note is that Tesla said a big chunk of those reservations were for the tri-motor version that is not due to appear until 2022, further dampening any real sales projections.

**The B2’s surfaces are as flat as the Cybertruck, but it costs twice as much**

Another factor that is new for Tesla is that, unlike its new model introductions to date, the Cybertruck is likely to have real electric pickup competition when it arrives, some of which may arrive before the Cybertruck. The Rivian, priced toward the high end of the announced Cybertruck models, is promising deliveries in late 2020 and already has a functional production facility. The Bollinger B2, a cyberpunk truck of its own, is pricier than the Cybertruck, but also expects 2021 deliveries to its waiting list of customers. Then there’s GM and Ford with electric versions of their existing best-selling pickups, both committing to be in market at the same time or before Tesla.

None of them is as wild of a design as the Cybertruck and none of them has the Tesla name, but it’s hard to say what the market will look like in two years.

Will it disrupt the pickup market?

This is Tesla’s trademark market impact. The light show rollout and hype-filled introduction of the Tesla Cybertruck has disrupted the marketplace and undoubtedly shifted marketing plans for a variety of companies. Tesla’s ability to disrupt the market is almost legendary at this point. The challenge for Musk & Co. is to turn that disruption into regular profit the way traditional auto companies have done for decades with less dramatic designs.