Iran stopped shipping oil to the United Kingdom and to France. Global oil prices shot-up and we pay more at the pump. Fortunately, oil consumption has peaked in the USA for the 10 reasons that follow. Over 96 percent of our transportation fuel comes from oil refined into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. To protect our security and national leadership, Americans are taking 10 actions that are reducing our need for oil, not increasing the demand.
BP’s Energy Outlook 2030 projects that demand for energy will grow by around 40% over the next two decades. That’s like adding one more China and one more US to the world’s energy demand by 2030. Nearly all of that growth – 96% in fact – is expected to come from the emerging economies with more than half coming from China and India alone. By 2030, 30% of cars will be hybrids. Renewable energy will grow over 1,000%.
“The electric car doesn’t do any good because it’s just powered by coal” gets repeated by the oil industry, by news pundits who ignore fact checking, and even by some environmentalists. I have yet to meet an electric car driver or fleet manager who only uses coal power. In the United States, 36 states have utility scale wind power.
San Francisco has about 1,500 taxis, double its fleet of 15 years ago. The total gasoline used each year by those 1,500 taxis is about half the total used by the 750, in years past. San Francisco taxi operators are saving millions by with a fleet that is 92 percent hybrid or fueled with CNG.
I’m sitting behind the wheel of this new Tesla Model S wishing that I could drive it away. I can’t. This prototype does not have a drive system. It is on display at the Clean-Tech Investor Summit, getting serious interest from attending CEOs and venture capitalists that can afford the $59,400 starting price. The price starts at $79,400 for the model with a remarkable 300-mile electric range. Tesla plans to ship 5,000 of the Model S in 2012 starting this June 22.
Pike Research’s John Gartner forecasts that global sales of hybrid and electric cars will grow from 995,000 in 2011 to 2,870,000 in 2017. Half the hybrid cars and all of the EVs will use lithium battery packs by 2017. In fact, the latest hybrid cars from Ford, Buick, Honda, Hyundai and Kai use lithium batteries. In six years, cars with advanced batteries will triple and lithium automotive battery packs will grow over 100 fold.
2012 will see the introduction of a myriad of plug-in electric vehicles: sports cars, an SUV, compacts, hatchbacks, sub-compacts, and sedans. Over the next several years, up to 40 plug-in models will be introduced. Later this week, the California Air Resources Board will vote on improvements to strengthen the state’s Zero Emission Vehicle program that will provide automakers with the long-term certainty necessary to ensure this proliferation of vehicle choice continues. Soon, there will be a zero emission vehicle to fit every lifestyle, budget, need, and desire.
Gartner, the largest technology market research firm, presented a scenario for 100,000 electric car sales in 2012 in the United States. Yesterday, I took in the presentation at the SV Forum and then talked with Thilo Koslowski, Vice President of Gartner’s Automotive and Vehicle Practice. He acknowledged that 100,000 is quite a jump from the 18,000 sold in 2011.
The new Ford Fusion gives car owners unprecedented choice in powertrains and fuel economy. The Ford Fusion can be offered with an efficient EcoBoost engine or as a hybrid with better mileage than any midsized sedan or as a plug-in hybrid that allows many trips to use zero gasoline. Classic styling, smooth driving, and excellent fuel economy come together in this new five-passenger midsized sedan. Market research revealed that 2 out of 3 U.S. shoppers, before buying, consider a midsized sedan, SUV, or liftback.
It’s an ideal California day for this test drive of the Kia Optima Hybrid. As the day warmed, we would be able to open the sunroof, even though it is January. The drive will combine city streets, freeway acceleration, hill climbing, and navigating curves over steep cliffs descending to the ocean. It will be interesting to compare this to my test drives of other midsized hybrids including the Toyota Camry Hybrid and Ford Fusion Hybrid.